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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • Obviously everyone knows there are costs. It’s free (at the point of use) but almost noone needs the brackets to be explicit. The point being that it’s more efficient and you continue to get it even if you have no “gross income” because we’re not monsters.

    Also how many countries have a “fixed percentage” with literally no allowances or brackets. I can’t think of any.


  • Nah this is just whataboutism. We all agree that the highest severity issues are access to heathcare/nutrition/sanitation/education in developing countries or among the homeless etc. That doesn’t mean we are suddenly not allowed to talk about anything else.

    Do you do this in real life?

    Colleague: “hey did you catch the game this weekend, boy I hate being a jets fan”

    Blarghly: “that’s rather gauche, don’t you know there’s major food insecurity in sudan”

    It has the intellectual weight of a parent trying to cajole their toddler into eating.





  • Still confused why you continue to emphasise estimate when ADP is also an estimate.

    I already emphasised the difficulty of real time stats, revisions are not shocking, but perfectly normal. I don’t think anyone is that surprised (though we can agree that there are a lot of overconfident and less statistically literate professionals), the gulf between hard data and sentiment/alternative data (vibecession and so forth) was well covered and had to resolve one way or another.

    ADP was +104k in July, so by your previous logic we should expect upwards revisions in the BLS July number as the year goes on right?



  • What are you talking about? They’re both estimates extrapolated from samples. I think most statisticians would prefer stratified sampling over one company’s payrolls processing, but whatever. Maybe chuds would argue that ADP is so much more efficient/accurate because it’s outside of the “swamp” of govt, it’s certainly an independent data point. I mean I agree with you in that BLS is not reliable either. Real time economics is hard.

    If you honestly preferred ADP all along and will continue to espouse it’s superiority when it next contradicts your view rather than confirming it (as it will because data are noisy) then more power to you.









  • I’m sure not many people care about physical vs digital per se. It’s the arbitrary locks by servers, digital storefront, DRM etc. So that when you pay your money you have no idea what you are getting and what your rights are. Physical game media was a simpler time from that perspective (play in perpetuity, don’t redistribute, cool cool that seems like a fair trade) and resulted in better pricing and experience for consumers.

    I’d accept “move on” if the argument was just “muh pretty box” (god knows there are plenty of ways to buy pretty boxes of vidya IP) but consumer rights are surely worth fighting for, or we get needlessly bled for ever more dollars.